The end of ICE will be catastrophe in Canada

Kris Eriksen, in Canada @KEriksenV2 says, So, now can we ALL agree that Canadians are in very, very, VERY DEEP trouble?

"Hold my beer." says Prime Minister Carney:  The Canadian federal government has mandated that all new light-duty vehicles sold by 2035 must be zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), effectively phasing out new sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. This policy, detailed in the Electric Vehicle Availability Standard, sets interim targets of 20% ZEV sales by 2026 and 60% by 2030, with a complete transition by 2035.

Not one to back away from trouble, I decide to point out how much trouble. I write this discourse about how much trouble with the help of Grok.

First question: Who else is doing this? Norway, Vietnam, Indonesia, Holland, other Eurotrash. 

Who isn't? India, China (does whatever it wants), U.S.A., Russia. Certainly nobody with oil resources.

Do you know what Grok says about ending gasoline powered engines in Canada? It's economic disaster.

I wonder why nobody talks about it.  Where are the independent gas station operators? Where are the small business organizations? The Chambers of Commerce? 

It is a horrific story. Grok estimates the following: 

Total: 8,420–8,820 independent businesses could shut down by 2035 due to the ICE vehicle sales ban.

And that's not half of it. The apprenticeship and certification of tradespeople in automotive mechanics, schools that teach automotive mechanics, the research and development expertise in making better engines, the whole apparatus of this form of existence, is gone.

Let's ask Grok how many job losses this is forecast to cause. Grok says losses will be a significant hit to the Canadian economy. Don't forget these are good paying skilled jobs, from CEOs, to MBAs, investors, owners of medium-size enterprises, and their staff, then shop owners and journeymen mechanics who make good money, and automotive chains with managers and/or proprietors, shop owners with the lifts and the bays, who charge the big dollars per hour to maintain vehicles for people from all walks of life. Pun intended.

As we have seen, Carney has made a solemn vow to wipe out 10,000 businesses  and he is following through with harpooning an entire sector of the Canadian economy. Kind of like the whale hunts of the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

This whale hunt is for the businesses dying by 2035, and it will be starting now. For instance, the killing starts with asking who will apprentice for mechanic jobs that no longer exist?

Let's ask Grok how many jobs this is, because it will equate the number of lives, times the number of family members, dependent on middle class wage earners whose skills are now useless in Canada.

How many jobs, Grok?

"To estimate the number of jobs lost due to the potential closure of approximately 8,400–8,800 independent automotive and petroleum distributing businesses in Canada by 2035, we need to consider the average number of employees per business type and apply those figures to the projected closures. The estimate of 8,400–8,800 closures includes 6,520–6,820 automotive businesses (repair shops, parts suppliers, dealerships) and 1,900–2,000 petroleum distributing businesses (gas stations, fuel distributors), as outlined previously. Below, I’ll break down the job loss estimates for each sector based on available data and reasonable assumptions." 

Are ya ready?   

Groks says, "The closure of 8,400–8,800 independent automotive and petroleum distributing businesses in Canada by 2035 could result in approximately 78,100–84,600 job losses."

That's an extremely low estimate. 

Schools, teachers at schools, the business  of real estate for shops and stations, and schools, a planned extinction event for an entire economy.  

That's my next question.

How much is, let's say, 100,000 well-paying jobs in cash, Grok?

The Grok answer is:

High Estimate: $4.59 billion × 1.5–2 = $6.89–9.18 billion per year, declining to nothing in less than 10 years.

How many people do you think depend on average on a middle class wage earner in Canada? 

Grok estimates: Approximately 92,800–102,100 people (workers plus their direct dependents) rely on the income of these middle-class wage earners. There is a gradient of incomes all disappearing. 

By his promises, Carney is about to cripple no less than 200,000 hard working members and family in Canadian society and leave them for dead, according to these numbers. 

These numbers, these are very low, in comparison to what he is actually going to do to Canadians simply by keeping his promises to Canadians.

I'm gonna go for a drive to find an ocean view and watch the tide begin to overflow the city, because that's what we face if we don't entirely annihilate the Canadian citizen and his nation.

Addendum

Look at the training and job opportunities for auto mechanics!   

Copilot Answer

Auto mechanic training programs provide essential skills and knowledge for aspiring automotive technicians, with options for hands-on experience, online courses, and certification preparation

Types of Training Programs

Vocational and Trade Schools: Many students choose to attend vocational or trade schools that offer specialized programs in automotive technology. These programs typically last from six months to two years and include both classroom instruction and hands-on training with real vehicles and tools. Schools like Universal Technical Institute (UTI) provide comprehensive training on various vehicle systems, preparing students for careers in the automotive industry. 

Online Courses: For those seeking flexibility, online auto mechanic programs, such as those offered by Penn Foster, allow students to learn at their own pace. These programs cover essential topics like engine repair, electrical systems, and diagnostics, and prepare students for ASE certification exams. 

Manufacturer-Specific Training: Some programs offer advanced training specific to certain manufacturers, which can be beneficial for those looking to work with particular brands. This training often mimics real-world workflows and can enhance job prospects. 

Certification and Accreditation

ASE Certification: The Automotive Service Excellence (ASE) certification is a widely recognized credential in the industry. Many training programs are designed to prepare students for these certification exams, which can significantly enhance job prospects and earning potential. 

Accredited Programs: It's important to choose a program accredited by recognized organizations, such as the ASE Education Foundation, to ensure quality training and better job opportunities. 

Career Opportunities

Completing an auto mechanic training program can lead to various career paths, including:

Automotive technician

Service manager

Specialty technician (e.g., brakes, transmissions)

Shop owner or entrepreneur

Training not only equips students with technical skills but also enhances their confidence and job satisfaction, making them more appealing to potential employers. 

Conclusion

Whether through traditional vocational schools or flexible online programs, aspiring auto mechanics have numerous training options available to them. 

These programs provide the necessary skills and knowledge to succeed in the automotive industry, paving the way for a rewarding career.

LIARS

I suppose somebody with the infinite wisdom and intelligence of a Prime Minister  believes, probably, nobody in Canada will figure out that he is promised to annihilate several large sectors of Canada's economy, including automotives. Anything to do with it. GONE>

If you enroll in a school, and blow thousands of dollars getting trained in engine repair, in Canada you do this for no reason, because by the time you get trained, you  will have a  maximum 6 year career.

six years and out. For all the time you invested, and money.

That's what you are promised by the Liberal Party of Canada   

  Talk about this one, good sir.

https://whatmatterstometoday.blogspot.com/2025/06/the-end-of-ice-will-be-catastrophy-in.html

I imagine if you live close to the U.S. border you will be able to drive to a gas station and fill up your car, but by the time you park it in your driveway, it will be empty.

And how ironic will it be, that we Canadians will be selling them 6 million barrels per day of oil by then (presently almost 5 million BBD) and we cannot buy gasoline in Canada.

That's going to be strange, huh?   Ten years?  I bet it's gone in less than five years, fleeing to the U.S., even Mexico, anywhere but here. And who in their right minds believes the Liberals are the ones to pull off something as essential as a complete dismantling and transition in personal travel? 

Watch gas stations start disappearing tomorrow, mechanics moving to U.S., and parts stores disappearing by year's end, because nobody will be driving. Anything.

This starts now. 

Are there exemptions and provisions and some imaginary fuel source left over to keep the marine sector on either coast or surrounding the Great Lakes supplied with fuel. Those are ICE engines too.

There won't be enough fuel available to start a barbeque never mind a Coast Guard rescue boat.

Why? Because. Liberals. pic.twitter.com/a2AbEzeyX7

— Citizen X (@MackMcColl222) July 8, 2025

Social Capital is Disappearing under the federal Liberal Party of Canada

McColl Magazine Daily: Liberal Lottery Winners Popping Up Everywhere

McColl Magazine Daily: Brain drain over banned fuel

Of all the great John Candy 'bits,' this has to be the greatest: The staggering talent of Johnny LaRue

Grok answers questions about the Oil Pumping, Whisky Swillin' Devil in a Red Dress, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith

Sounds positively giddy  you can send 4.84 million barrels of crude oil per day to the United States but take a few bottles of bourbon in return and you're the devil in a red dress.

What a country.

Let's ramble about Oil for a moment, in a big ol' round about way, how much this all means to the U.S. for example.

I wish to deviate for a moment, to begin with, by asking Grok how much oil Alaska ships per day from Valdez, Alaska to Portland and California. This is about a loaded tanker per day in traffic sailing south along the west coast of North America, as you will see.

GROK ANSWERS: Alaska’s crude oil production in 2023 was approximately 422,000 barrels per day, with the majority transported via the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) to Valdez, Alaska, for shipment to the continental United States. Most of this oil is destined for refineries in the Pacific Northwest (Washington) and California (PADD 5), with some also supplying in-state refineries. While exact figures for shipments to the continental U.S. vary, nearly all of Alaska’s production not consumed locally (a small fraction) is shipped to the continental U.S., averaging around 400,000–410,000 barrels per day based on recent trends. No Alaskan crude oil has been exported internationally since 2014.

Next asking Grok what route the oil takes. . .

Prince William Sound: Tankers depart from Port Valdez, navigating the deep, ice-free waters of Valdez Arm within Prince William Sound, a large embayment of the Gulf of Alaska. The entrance to the sound has a minimum channel width of about 3,000 feet.

Gulf of Alaska: After exiting Prince William Sound, tankers travel south through the Gulf of Alaska, a region of the Pacific Ocean along Alaska’s southern coast.

Pacific Ocean (West Coast Route): Tankers proceed south along the U.S. West Coast, primarily following coastal shipping lanes to reach refineries in the Pacific Northwest and California. The route avoids major international waters for most shipments, as the oil is destined for U.S. ports.

Domestic Dominance: About 85–90% of U.S. oil consumption is met by domestic production, primarily from shale plays like the Permian Basin, Eagle Ford, and Bakken formations.

Imports Supplement: The remaining ~10–15% comes from imports, with Canada being the largest supplier (e.g., 4.84 million barrels per day of crude in 2023). Imports are often used for specific crude types suited to U.S. refineries.

Alaska’s Contribution: Alaska’s production (~422,000 barrels per day) is a small fraction of domestic supply, mostly shipped to West Coast refineries, as discussed earlier.

19 million barrels per day in U.S., out of the world's 100 million barrels per day. 

That's a whopping amount of oil.

10–15% comes from imports, with Canada being the largest supplier (e.g., 4.84 million barrels per day) of what makes the U.S. function, those are essential percents.

And it's Alberta, with some from Nfld Labrador.

GROK Explains:  In 2023, Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) contributed approximately 1.9% of Canada’s total crude oil exports to the United States, according to the Canada Energy Regulator (CER). Canada exported about 4 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil to the U.S. that year, with NL’s share equating to roughly 76,000 barrels per day (4 million × 0.019). 

This volume comes from NL’s offshore oil fields (e.g., Hibernia, Terra Nova, White Rose, and Hebron), which produced about 0.2 million barrels per day (4% of Canada’s total oil production) in 2023. While most Canadian oil exports to the U.S. originate from Alberta (87.4%) and Saskatchewan (8.9%), NL’s light, sweet crude is primarily shipped by tankers from the Whiffen Head terminal in Placentia Bay to U.S. East Coast refineries (PADD 1). Notably, 40–60% of NL’s oil production in 2023–2024 was exported to non-U.S. markets (e.g., Western Europe, China, Croatia), reducing the U.S. share compared to historical trends.

So what is it you expect Premier Smith to do? Cut off oil to the U.S.? That sounds like an act of unaliving oneself.

With everything at stake here, we better throw in the whisky.

Price of Oil

Benchmark Price: Most Canadian crude exported to the U.S. is heavy oil, such as Western Canadian Select (WCS), which is typically priced at a discount compared to West Texas Intermediate (WTI). In 2023, WCS prices averaged around $60 per barrel, while WTI averaged about $77 per barrel (based on EIA and industry data).📷📷

For a conservative ballpark estimate, we’ll use $60 per barrel for WCS, as it reflects the heavier crude dominant in Canadian exports (e.g., from Alberta’s oil sands).

3. Daily Value

Calculation: 4.84 million barrels/day × $60 per barrel = $290.4 million per day.

Range Estimate: If we consider a price range of $55–$65 per barrel to account for WCS price fluctuations in 2023:

Low end: 4.84 million × $55 = $266.2 million per day.

High end: 4.84 million × $65 = $314.6 million per day.

4. Annual Value

Annual Estimate: To provide context, 4.84 million barrels/day × 365 days × $60 per barrel = $105.92 billion per year.

This aligns with estimates from the Canada Energy Regulator, which valued 2023 Canadian crude oil exports to the U.S. (3.8 million b/d in their data) at $130 billion, suggesting our per-barrel price is reasonable but conservative, as actual volumes and prices may vary slightly.📷

5. Newfoundland and Labrador’s Contribution

From your earlier question, Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) contributed about 76,000 barrels per day (1.9% of Canada’s 4 million b/d exports to the U.S.). Using the same $60 per barrel:

Daily Value from NL: 76,000 barrels/day × $60 = $4.56 million per day.

Annual Value from NL: 76,000 × 365 × $60 = $1.66 billion per year.

1. Economic Scale

U.S. Economy: The U.S. GDP in 2023 was approximately $25.5 trillion (World Bank data). Canada’s oil exports to the U.S. ($106 billion annually) represent about 0.42% of U.S. GDP. While this is a small fraction of the total economy, it’s a significant figure in absolute terms, equivalent to the GDP of a mid-sized country like Vietnam ($104 billion in 2023).

Canadian Economy: Canada’s GDP in 2023 was about $2.14 trillion USD (World Bank). The $106 billion in oil exports to the U.S. accounts for roughly 5% of Canada’s GDP, a substantial contribution to its economy, particularly for provinces like Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador.

Oil Industry: The global oil market in 2023 was valued at roughly $2.5–3 trillion annually (100.2 million barrels/day global consumption × $70–80 average price per barrel). Canada’s U.S. exports ($106 billion) represent about 3.5–4.2% of the global oil market value, underscoring their importance in global energy trade.

2. Energy Supply Context

U.S. Oil Consumption: The U.S. consumed about 19.0 million barrels per day of oil in 2023 (EIA data). Canada’s 4.84 million barrels per day supply ~25.5% of U.S. oil consumption, making it the largest single source of U.S. oil imports (followed by Mexico and Saudi Arabia). This is a critical component of U.S. energy security, especially since domestic production (~12.9 million barrels/day) covers ~68% of consumption, leaving imports to fill the gap.

Comparison to Other Imports: Canada’s 4.84 million barrels/day dwarfs other U.S. oil import sources (e.g., Mexico: 0.6 million barrels/day; Saudi Arabia: ~0.4 million barrels/day). It’s also significantly larger than Alaska’s domestic shipments to the continental U.S. (400,000 barrels/day), which you asked about earlier.

Newfoundland and Labrador (NL): NL’s contribution of 76,000 barrels per day ($4.6 million/day or $1.66 billion/year) is smaller but still significant, representing ~1.9% of Canada’s U.S. exports. For NL, this is a major economic driver, as oil accounts for ~25% of the province’s GDP.

So we are nothing to them and they are everything to us. That's a spicy meatball.

We are nothing. Literally nothing to them. We are not equivalent to the sweat on their ass. That's what we have to show for it. Frankly it's a fucking miracle a guy like Mark Carney would even bother to run Canada.

THE AGENDA Their Vision For Your Future

The Essence of Elon's Complaint is Mistaken, and here's how

It's hard to believe there are some things too big to wrap your head around, and the way the U.S. is spending money to stay alive is one of those things.

Musk, you need look at your own swollen net worth to realize the situation isn't the making of one President, one administration, one party.

It's an international issue. It's a world issue. It's a world problem. And it's bigger than one man helping one President, who doesn't necessarily grasp the gravitate of a one world crisis.

The nature of this one world crisis is the essence of humanity's hope for the future. And it's impossible to predict, except, there will be crisis. 

Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada elected himself for the very purpose of managing the crisis.

Whatever that means, batten down the hatches.

“That I think was the real wakeup call for me was seeing that the interest payments on the National Debt exceeded the Defense Department budget.. I just don't want America to go bankrupt”

pic.twitter.com/mkpyjUTxHf

— America (@america) June 5, 2025

The defense department budget doesn't apply to U.S. citizens alone, which you must understand. It is a budget designed to supply security forces around the world.

And the debt for spending like this doesn't apply exclusively to U.S. Taxpayers. It has to be impossible to work this out. 

There is intrinsic value spread world-wide from U.S. government expenditures of all types, and conventions, unwritten laws, codes of behavior to consider when demanding Americans bear the whole burden of this expense. They do not. 

You should be working with AI to figure out better ways to measure the values behind these expenditures. You haven't done it yourself.

Ask the Pope. He's been at it forever. 

Operations up but planting numbers down; PLUS Introducing The Cache, WFCA Bulletin Board

Wait for the sign: an auspicious portent last year over a planting camp near Burns Lake. 2025, so far, is going well, according to field reports. Photo LL. WFCA.CA

According to information from provincial seedling storage operators, about a third of their tree cartons have been delivered to the field since Interior planting began in April. 

If things continue to go smoothly, these refrigerated warehouses will be mostly empty by the summer solstice. Summer hot-lift planting usually begins again around July. 

This year’s provincial planting volume is down about 60-million from the 2020 +300-million estimated to be the sector’s full capacity. 

That reduction in work for the overall seasonal labour force of approximately 7000 has been hardest on new recruits with only half of the usual thousand or so rookies hired, according to anecdotal reports. 

New First Aid regulations seem to be working with both contractors and WorkSafeBC figuring out what they mean in practice. Alberta’s planting at ~100-million has not been affected like the BC program allowing some BC planters to continue to cross the Cordillera for the summer planting east of here. 

No contractors are shorthanded with some reporting more returnees due to stunted prospects in other parts of the work economy. Drought remains a concern due to the lower snowpack levels with accounts of the last of the snow on blocks, in some places, seeming to sublimate.

 Anticipated wetter weather fronts this month may offer some relief. But continental long-range forecasts say things will heat up across the country to above normal later this spring and summer. As we go to press, crews are waiting out wildfire activity in Manitoba related to a recent heat wave.

The Cache  traffics in resource materials, job postings, and lately expert advice on First Aid, employment standards, and career and occupational paths.

Following the launch last March of an online Job board at The Cache,  the industry website has continued to grow with a new “Ask an Expert” section to answer questions posed by workers. The Job Board provides a method of posting work opportunities outside the channels of conventional social media. 

Postings have thus far included openings for tree planters, nursery workers, camp and kitchen workers, and firefighters. “Ask an Expert” articles have addressed topics related to new first aid guidelines, personal protective equipment, and employment standards, with new topics covered weekly.

The Cache is not intended to replace existing social media on Meta (Facebook) or Reddit, but instead it is designed to work in parallel and provide a forum for employers and employees that choose to avoid other media. Moving forward, The Cache will also provide a hub for online training opportunities, career development mapping, and other resources for people seeking to learn about silviculture work or advance their careers in the field.

Posting jobs on The Cache is free, and job ads and links to The Cache are shared across other social media platforms to broaden the audience.  With the primary recruitment pool for silviculture comprising young people between the ages of 18 and 25, 

The Cache fills an important space in the industry social media strategy. The Cache will also provide an important means of centralizing and increasing access to training as the industry adapts its workforce and skill sets to deal with changing industry needs, new hazards associated with climate change, and shifts in economic conditions and workforce composition.

Article reprinted from WFCA Round-Up May 2025 

http://www.mccollmagazine.com 

What Elon said on his way out the door? This is very bad news about Jeffrey Epstein, first he's killed, then he's legless

pic.twitter.com/u6ZFHSWMri

— Vote Canada (@VoteCanadaCom) June 5, 2025

Salmon Growers on B.C. side of Canada want to continue

The Great Chinese-Canada Alliance nobody asked for

#WATCH: Melanie Joly says Canada and China are the only countries to impose retaliatory tariffs against the US.

According to her, being like China is good and being like the US is bad.

Is Melanie Joly retarded? pic.twitter.com/gFAmNyg947

— govt.exe is corrupt (@govt_corrupt) June 2, 2025

In answer to my friend, @govtcorrupt.

Well, the question is, how does China feel about Israel? At best, China feels a kind of practiced ambivalence, and a load of skepticism. 

 For this reason, I bet there's a Canada-China alliance against Israel currently underway.

Not only has the Canadian political elite pissed away Canada's standing in trade, energy, military, and alliances. 

No.

Canada's political elite has aligned the nation with communists and terrorists, creating arms embargoes against Israel, totally annihilating the India relationship, and kissing China's ass like she was Harvey Weinstein and Miramax offering the role of a lifetime. I don't know why. Canadians don't align with terrorists. 

Or communist fentanyl exporters. WTF is going on? Canada's elite is nose deep in bad stuff. Citizen X @MackMcColl222 

You know, they're not really elite. They're rich. They're bottom feeders. They get big, rich, up sucking everything off the floor. It's everything. Like, a carbon tax is a sucking everything off the floor. 

First, they hang you upside down. Then they suck everything off the floor.

Toronto Hamas demonstrators arrested, police say no to terrorist sympathizers

Mass arrests of proHamas demonstrators -is this the right action ?
Do you support this !

pic.twitter.com/6VcOVvJm7m

— Concerned Canadian (@Concern70732755) June 1, 2025

Paris is burning with Islamic rage 

Paris is gone.pic.twitter.com/UTgSEkKOpT

— Vivid.🇮🇱 (@VividProwess) May 31, 2025

Trump delivers speech to Congress, watch if you love stone-faced Democrats

President Donald Trump’s full remarks to a joint session of Congress

pic.twitter.com/UmGhPrnclS

— America (@america) March 5, 2025

So, we decided the future is solar

 It's solar or bust for the human race.

It's true, when the infrastructure falls into place, and you're at a latitude advantageous for production of solar electricity.

Equally, the invention of batteries, and the evolution of solar energy gathering technology, it may only take minutes a day in cloudy conditions to create the kind of power we use daily in our industrial and domestic lives.

You could probably expect a paint on an automobile to turn both sun and warmth into electrical energy to power the car and store in batteries. Batteries will evolve into something beyond recognition. The whole world could be done over, and will be. Because you're right. The power of the sun makes oil look like a fart in the wind.

It's important to recognize limits on petroleum energy, because it may indeed be a supply that could go on forever, who knows? 

The problem is basic. It takes a large concentration of energy simply to distribute petroleum, and if the demand for this form of energy is increasing, the infrastructure also needs to expand, which means the tankers need to be bigger, and sail more frequently, and the storage facilities need to be larger, and the pipelines need to expand, and the gas lines to the houses, and the gas stations for the increasing number of cars, and trucks, and trains.  

In short, it becomes ungainly to deliver this form of energy, to be honest, plus, you build it, then, run out of oil. What a mess that's going to be. And you haven't replaced it. Which was supposed to happen in about 1975.

The actual projections for running out of oil stands at 50 years from now. That's also a blink and you're there.

Check out our latest pod with @JessePeltan, which is just 3 hrs straight of him dropping bangers like the one below pic.twitter.com/y6BbDykKXe

— DER Task Force (@DER_Task_Force) May 6, 2025

The skinny on Oil Sands in Alberta, according to Grok

15 web pages produced by Grok in less time than it takes to make a cuppa tea.

I said, to Grok, "The oils sands of Alberta are projected to contain reserves of oil enough to serve demand for 200 years. Does this sound accurate?"

The claim that Alberta’s oil sands contain reserves sufficient to meet demand for 200 years requires careful scrutiny, as it depends on multiple variables including reserve estimates, extraction methods, global oil demand, and economic viability. Let’s break it down based on available data and critical analysis.

Reserve Estimates

Alberta’s oil sands are among the largest oil reserves globally, with proven reserves estimated at approximately 158.9 to 167 billion barrels of recoverable bitumen, according to sources like the Alberta government, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), and McDaniel & Associates. Total bitumen-in-place is much higher, estimated at 1.7 to 2.5 trillion barrels, but only about 10% is economically recoverable with current technology.

Current Production and Demand Context

In 2024, Alberta’s oil sands produced about 3.4 to 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd), accounting for roughly 75% of Canada’s total oil production. Global oil demand in 2024 was approximately 100 million bpd, with projections suggesting demand may peak around 2030–2035 before declining due to energy transitions (e.g., electrification, renewable energy).

To evaluate the 200-year claim, let’s assume Alberta’s oil sands were to supply a significant portion of global demand:

At 3.4 million bpd, annual production is roughly 1.24 billion barrels per year (3.4 million × 365 days).

Dividing the proven reserves (167 billion barrels) by this production rate yields approximately 135 years of supply if Alberta’s oil sands were the sole source at current production levels (167 billion ÷ 1.24 billion ≈ 135).

However, global demand far exceeds Alberta’s production capacity, as the oil sands contribute only about 3–4% of global supply. If we consider Alberta supplying a fraction of global demand (e.g., 3.4 million bpd out of 100 million bpd), the reserves would last much longer, but the 200-year claim assumes sustained demand and no significant technological or economic disruptions.

Factors Affecting the 200-Year Claim

Demand Projections: The claim assumes constant or slowly declining oil demand over 200 years. However, the Canadian Energy Regulator predicts a potential 75% drop in Canadian crude production by 2050 in a global net-zero scenario due to reduced fossil fuel demand. Countries like China, the UK, and France are planning to phase out internal combustion engines by 2040, which could significantly reduce oil demand.

Economic Viability: Oil sands extraction is energy-intensive and costly, requiring high oil prices (e.g., $60–$70 per barrel or more) to remain profitable. Fluctuating oil prices, competition from cheaper sources (e.g., U.S. shale), and increasing carbon taxes could limit long-term production.

Technological Advances: Innovations like steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) have increased recoverable reserves, but only 10% of bitumen-in-place is currently economical. Future technologies could increase this percentage, potentially extending the reserve lifespan, but this is speculative.

Environmental and Policy Constraints: Oil sands are criticized for high carbon emissions, water usage, and land disturbance. Stricter regulations, carbon pricing, or global climate commitments (e.g., Paris Agreement) could curtail production. For instance, emissions from oil sands were 84 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2019, about 15% of Canada’s total emissions.

Global Competition: Other oil-producing regions (e.g., Venezuela, Saudi Arabia) have larger or cheaper reserves. Venezuela’s heavy oil deposits are estimated at 1,200 billion barrels in-place, though recovery rates are lower. U.S. shale oil, with lower breakeven costs, could outcompete oil sands in certain markets.

Critical Analysis of the 200-Year Claim

The 200-year estimate likely originates from optimistic projections, such as those cited in a 2017 CBC article quoting an oil sands executive claiming operations could last “100 or 200 years.” Similarly, a 2009 NASA Earth Observatory report suggested the oil sands could produce 2.5 million bpd for 186 years, based on 174.5 billion barrels of reserves. However, these projections often assume:

Constant production rates without accounting for demand declines.

No significant policy shifts toward decarbonization. Continued economic viability despite high extraction costs and environmental liabilities, estimated at $60–$260 billion for cleanup.

Skeptically, the 200-year figure seems overly optimistic. A more realistic estimate, based on current reserves and production rates, suggests 100–150 years if Alberta’s oil sands were a primary global supplier, but this ignores declining demand and external pressures. Posts on X, such as one claiming Alberta has “1 trillion barrels” (likely referring to bitumen-in-place, not recoverable reserves), exaggerate the usable supply.

Conclusion

The claim that Alberta’s oil sands can meet demand for 200 years is not entirely accurate under realistic scenarios. At current production rates and proven reserves, the supply could theoretically last 100–150 years if used exclusively, but global demand trends, economic challenges, and environmental policies make this unlikely. A more conservative estimate suggests 20–50 years of significant production before demand declines or costs render large-scale extraction uneconomical, though technological breakthroughs could extend this. For a definitive answer, global oil demand forecasts and future extraction technologies would need closer examination.

Flatlined aquaculture production and a small fragment of west coast potential

 May 20, 2025

To: Federal and Provincial Ministers of Agriculture and Fisheries

Dear Ministers:

On behalf of Canada’s seafood farming community, we thank you for your work and your commitment to your provinces and to Canada. As leaders in the aquaculture sector, we commit ourselves to working with you to create lasting value and flourishing communities through our sector across Canada.

The future of seafood development in Canada and across the world is dependent on human ingenuity to find new ways to responsibly create value from our oceans, to innovate to produce more, secure and affordable seafood to support Canadians and the world.

We have a special responsibility in Canada with some of the greatest biophysical capacity on the planet. With highly skilled people, and many coastal communities waiting for new opportunities and renewal, precision farming of our waters is a unique blessing for Canada.

It is time to move beyond Canada’s mediocre performance. For over twenty years Canada has Flatlined in aquaculture production growth while using only a small fragment of our potential. We need a new vision and government leadership to support us to the next level of production and excellence in aquaculture production. You are the leaders that can and must be bold to achieve this.

We ask you to undertake a pathway that allows for a new approach to aquaculture development in Canada. We propose the following areas of action to you as the foundations for a new springtime in seafood development and coastal community revitalization.

1) Science Must Be the Foundation

Science must be re-established as foundational for aquaculture development. A re-commitment to objective scientific advice as the foundation for policy decisions is necessary. All human activity has some degree of environmental risk, and there is no such thing as zero risk. Putting off economic development risks the health of people, families and communities. Governments must be clear on acceptable levels of environmental risk to make predictable and reasonable decisions for project development.

2) The BC “Open Net Pen” Ban Must Be Removed

The 2024 federal decision to ban salmon farming net pens by 2029 is scientifically, economically and technologically irresponsible. It has cast an investment chill on all of Canada and we are seeing its negative influence around the world. As salmon farming investment decisions in BC for 2029 are approaching quickly, the ban must be removed urgently in favour of a clear performance-based pathway that establishes stabilization, future growth and attracts investment in innovation and new technologies.

3) Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) Must be the Federal Aquaculture Champion

DFO is a regulator and habitat protector. It is not equipped to support a modern, growth-oriented farming sector. It is time for a change. AAFC must be named the lead federal department for sector development, while DFO and CFIA continue to be regulators of the sector. Aquaculture must finally be included in federal legislation as a farming activity consistent with international definitions.

4) Modernize Shellfish Sector Management and Risk Supports

The shellfish aquaculture sector holds significant economic, environmental, and food security potential across Canada. However, its growth is constrained by outdated federal oversight, particularly under the Canadian Shellfish Sanitation Program (CSSP), and by the sector’s exclusion from essential risk management tools available to other forms of food production. A modernized approach is needed — one that ensures effective, coordinated delivery of public health protections while also enabling access to government-industry programs that provide stability and resilience for producers.

To move this forward, we request federal support for a pilot crop insurance program for shellfish aquaculture in Prince Edward Island, with the goal of informing a national approach to business risk management program access for shellfish farmers in all producing provinces.

We ask you: provide a positive signal that aquaculture is an important part of Canada’s future and together begin building a united vision for this future. 

For our part, we will increase our efforts to build public trust and constantly improve our practices. We can together build a sector that leads the world with job creation, skilled workers, Indigenous economic and reconciliation opportunities, low-carbon, healthy and affordable home-grown protein production, and renewed coastal communities

This is an exciting time and challenge. The time is now for positive and lasting change to benefit your provinces and all of Canada.

Sincerely,

Humans are in deep trouble if declining birth rates continue

 You know the human race is in deep trouble when the species is locked down for two years, not allowed out, no place to go.

And no baby boom results. 

That spells the end of the race.

If ever there was a test of the human condition, the lockdown was it. There should be massive numbers of children in the world from 2020, 2021.

Believe it or not, birth rates DECLINED.

That tells you, three generations from now, humanity will be fighting for survival with no breeding taking place whatsoever.

Breeding new humans is passe. Nobody will do it anymore. 

That's the end, people. That is the end of the race.

People  don't want to do it anymore. So we're done.