Grok answers questions about, the Oil Pumping, Whisky Swillin' Devil in a Red Dress, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith

Sounds positively giddy  you can send 4.84 million barrels of crude oil per day to the United States but take a few bottles of bourbon in return and you're the devil in a red dress.

What a country.

Let's ramble about Oil for a moment, in a big ol' round about way, how much this all means to the U.S. for example.

I wish to deviate for a moment, to begin with, by asking Grok how much oil Alaska ships per day from Valdez, Alaska to Portland and California. This is about a loaded tanker per day in traffic sailing south along the west coast of North America, as you will see.

GROK ANSWERS: Alaska’s crude oil production in 2023 was approximately 422,000 barrels per day, with the majority transported via the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) to Valdez, Alaska, for shipment to the continental United States. Most of this oil is destined for refineries in the Pacific Northwest (Washington) and California (PADD 5), with some also supplying in-state refineries. While exact figures for shipments to the continental U.S. vary, nearly all of Alaska’s production not consumed locally (a small fraction) is shipped to the continental U.S., averaging around 400,000–410,000 barrels per day based on recent trends. No Alaskan crude oil has been exported internationally since 2014.

Next asking Grok what route the oil takes. . .

Prince William Sound: Tankers depart from Port Valdez, navigating the deep, ice-free waters of Valdez Arm within Prince William Sound, a large embayment of the Gulf of Alaska. The entrance to the sound has a minimum channel width of about 3,000 feet.

Gulf of Alaska: After exiting Prince William Sound, tankers travel south through the Gulf of Alaska, a region of the Pacific Ocean along Alaska’s southern coast.

Pacific Ocean (West Coast Route): Tankers proceed south along the U.S. West Coast, primarily following coastal shipping lanes to reach refineries in the Pacific Northwest and California. The route avoids major international waters for most shipments, as the oil is destined for U.S. ports.

Domestic Dominance: About 85–90% of U.S. oil consumption is met by domestic production, primarily from shale plays like the Permian Basin, Eagle Ford, and Bakken formations.

Imports Supplement: The remaining ~10–15% comes from imports, with Canada being the largest supplier (e.g., 4.84 million barrels per day of crude in 2023). Imports are often used for specific crude types suited to U.S. refineries.

Alaska’s Contribution: Alaska’s production (~422,000 barrels per day) is a small fraction of domestic supply, mostly shipped to West Coast refineries, as discussed earlier.

19 million barrels per day in U.S., out of the world's 100 million barrels per day. 

That's a whopping amount of oil.

10–15% comes from imports, with Canada being the largest supplier (e.g., 4.84 million barrels per day) of what makes the U.S. function, those are essential percents.

And it's Alberta, with some from Nfld Labrador.

GROK Explains:  In 2023, Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) contributed approximately 1.9% of Canada’s total crude oil exports to the United States, according to the Canada Energy Regulator (CER). Canada exported about 4 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil to the U.S. that year, with NL’s share equating to roughly 76,000 barrels per day (4 million × 0.019). 

This volume comes from NL’s offshore oil fields (e.g., Hibernia, Terra Nova, White Rose, and Hebron), which produced about 0.2 million barrels per day (4% of Canada’s total oil production) in 2023. While most Canadian oil exports to the U.S. originate from Alberta (87.4%) and Saskatchewan (8.9%), NL’s light, sweet crude is primarily shipped by tankers from the Whiffen Head terminal in Placentia Bay to U.S. East Coast refineries (PADD 1). Notably, 40–60% of NL’s oil production in 2023–2024 was exported to non-U.S. markets (e.g., Western Europe, China, Croatia), reducing the U.S. share compared to historical trends.

So what is it you expect Premier Smith to do? Cut off oil to the U.S.? That sounds like an act of unaliving oneself.

With everything at stake here, we better throw in the whisky.

Price of Oil

Benchmark Price: Most Canadian crude exported to the U.S. is heavy oil, such as Western Canadian Select (WCS), which is typically priced at a discount compared to West Texas Intermediate (WTI). In 2023, WCS prices averaged around $60 per barrel, while WTI averaged about $77 per barrel (based on EIA and industry data).📷📷

For a conservative ballpark estimate, we’ll use $60 per barrel for WCS, as it reflects the heavier crude dominant in Canadian exports (e.g., from Alberta’s oil sands).

3. Daily Value

Calculation: 4.84 million barrels/day × $60 per barrel = $290.4 million per day.

Range Estimate: If we consider a price range of $55–$65 per barrel to account for WCS price fluctuations in 2023:

Low end: 4.84 million × $55 = $266.2 million per day.

High end: 4.84 million × $65 = $314.6 million per day.

4. Annual Value

Annual Estimate: To provide context, 4.84 million barrels/day × 365 days × $60 per barrel = $105.92 billion per year.

This aligns with estimates from the Canada Energy Regulator, which valued 2023 Canadian crude oil exports to the U.S. (3.8 million b/d in their data) at $130 billion, suggesting our per-barrel price is reasonable but conservative, as actual volumes and prices may vary slightly.📷

5. Newfoundland and Labrador’s Contribution

From your earlier question, Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) contributed about 76,000 barrels per day (1.9% of Canada’s 4 million b/d exports to the U.S.). Using the same $60 per barrel:

Daily Value from NL: 76,000 barrels/day × $60 = $4.56 million per day.

Annual Value from NL: 76,000 × 365 × $60 = $1.66 billion per year.

1. Economic Scale

U.S. Economy: The U.S. GDP in 2023 was approximately $25.5 trillion (World Bank data). Canada’s oil exports to the U.S. ($106 billion annually) represent about 0.42% of U.S. GDP. While this is a small fraction of the total economy, it’s a significant figure in absolute terms, equivalent to the GDP of a mid-sized country like Vietnam ($104 billion in 2023).

Canadian Economy: Canada’s GDP in 2023 was about $2.14 trillion USD (World Bank). The $106 billion in oil exports to the U.S. accounts for roughly 5% of Canada’s GDP, a substantial contribution to its economy, particularly for provinces like Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador.

Oil Industry: The global oil market in 2023 was valued at roughly $2.5–3 trillion annually (100.2 million barrels/day global consumption × $70–80 average price per barrel). Canada’s U.S. exports ($106 billion) represent about 3.5–4.2% of the global oil market value, underscoring their importance in global energy trade.

2. Energy Supply Context

U.S. Oil Consumption: The U.S. consumed about 19.0 million barrels per day of oil in 2023 (EIA data). Canada’s 4.84 million barrels per day supply ~25.5% of U.S. oil consumption, making it the largest single source of U.S. oil imports (followed by Mexico and Saudi Arabia). This is a critical component of U.S. energy security, especially since domestic production (~12.9 million barrels/day) covers ~68% of consumption, leaving imports to fill the gap.

Comparison to Other Imports: Canada’s 4.84 million barrels/day dwarfs other U.S. oil import sources (e.g., Mexico: 0.6 million barrels/day; Saudi Arabia: ~0.4 million barrels/day). It’s also significantly larger than Alaska’s domestic shipments to the continental U.S. (400,000 barrels/day), which you asked about earlier.

Newfoundland and Labrador (NL): NL’s contribution of 76,000 barrels per day ($4.6 million/day or $1.66 billion/year) is smaller but still significant, representing ~1.9% of Canada’s U.S. exports. For NL, this is a major economic driver, as oil accounts for ~25% of the province’s GDP.

So we are nothing to them and they are everything to us. That's a spicy meatball.

We are nothing. Literally nothing to them. We are not equivalent to the sweat on their ass. That's what we have to show for it. Frankly it's a fucking miracle a guy like Mark Carney would even bother to run Canada.

The skinny on Oil Sands in Alberta, according to Grok

15 web pages produced by Grok in less time than it takes to make a cuppa tea.

I said, to Grok, "The oils sands of Alberta are projected to contain reserves of oil enough to serve demand for 200 years. Does this sound accurate?"

The claim that Alberta’s oil sands contain reserves sufficient to meet demand for 200 years requires careful scrutiny, as it depends on multiple variables including reserve estimates, extraction methods, global oil demand, and economic viability. Let’s break it down based on available data and critical analysis.

Reserve Estimates

Alberta’s oil sands are among the largest oil reserves globally, with proven reserves estimated at approximately 158.9 to 167 billion barrels of recoverable bitumen, according to sources like the Alberta government, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), and McDaniel & Associates. Total bitumen-in-place is much higher, estimated at 1.7 to 2.5 trillion barrels, but only about 10% is economically recoverable with current technology.

Current Production and Demand Context

In 2024, Alberta’s oil sands produced about 3.4 to 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd), accounting for roughly 75% of Canada’s total oil production. Global oil demand in 2024 was approximately 100 million bpd, with projections suggesting demand may peak around 2030–2035 before declining due to energy transitions (e.g., electrification, renewable energy).

To evaluate the 200-year claim, let’s assume Alberta’s oil sands were to supply a significant portion of global demand:

At 3.4 million bpd, annual production is roughly 1.24 billion barrels per year (3.4 million × 365 days).

Dividing the proven reserves (167 billion barrels) by this production rate yields approximately 135 years of supply if Alberta’s oil sands were the sole source at current production levels (167 billion ÷ 1.24 billion ≈ 135).

However, global demand far exceeds Alberta’s production capacity, as the oil sands contribute only about 3–4% of global supply. If we consider Alberta supplying a fraction of global demand (e.g., 3.4 million bpd out of 100 million bpd), the reserves would last much longer, but the 200-year claim assumes sustained demand and no significant technological or economic disruptions.

Factors Affecting the 200-Year Claim

Demand Projections: The claim assumes constant or slowly declining oil demand over 200 years. However, the Canadian Energy Regulator predicts a potential 75% drop in Canadian crude production by 2050 in a global net-zero scenario due to reduced fossil fuel demand. Countries like China, the UK, and France are planning to phase out internal combustion engines by 2040, which could significantly reduce oil demand.

Economic Viability: Oil sands extraction is energy-intensive and costly, requiring high oil prices (e.g., $60–$70 per barrel or more) to remain profitable. Fluctuating oil prices, competition from cheaper sources (e.g., U.S. shale), and increasing carbon taxes could limit long-term production.

Technological Advances: Innovations like steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) have increased recoverable reserves, but only 10% of bitumen-in-place is currently economical. Future technologies could increase this percentage, potentially extending the reserve lifespan, but this is speculative.

Environmental and Policy Constraints: Oil sands are criticized for high carbon emissions, water usage, and land disturbance. Stricter regulations, carbon pricing, or global climate commitments (e.g., Paris Agreement) could curtail production. For instance, emissions from oil sands were 84 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2019, about 15% of Canada’s total emissions.

Global Competition: Other oil-producing regions (e.g., Venezuela, Saudi Arabia) have larger or cheaper reserves. Venezuela’s heavy oil deposits are estimated at 1,200 billion barrels in-place, though recovery rates are lower. U.S. shale oil, with lower breakeven costs, could outcompete oil sands in certain markets.

Critical Analysis of the 200-Year Claim

The 200-year estimate likely originates from optimistic projections, such as those cited in a 2017 CBC article quoting an oil sands executive claiming operations could last “100 or 200 years.” Similarly, a 2009 NASA Earth Observatory report suggested the oil sands could produce 2.5 million bpd for 186 years, based on 174.5 billion barrels of reserves. However, these projections often assume:

Constant production rates without accounting for demand declines.

No significant policy shifts toward decarbonization. Continued economic viability despite high extraction costs and environmental liabilities, estimated at $60–$260 billion for cleanup.

Skeptically, the 200-year figure seems overly optimistic. A more realistic estimate, based on current reserves and production rates, suggests 100–150 years if Alberta’s oil sands were a primary global supplier, but this ignores declining demand and external pressures. Posts on X, such as one claiming Alberta has “1 trillion barrels” (likely referring to bitumen-in-place, not recoverable reserves), exaggerate the usable supply.

Conclusion

The claim that Alberta’s oil sands can meet demand for 200 years is not entirely accurate under realistic scenarios. At current production rates and proven reserves, the supply could theoretically last 100–150 years if used exclusively, but global demand trends, economic challenges, and environmental policies make this unlikely. A more conservative estimate suggests 20–50 years of significant production before demand declines or costs render large-scale extraction uneconomical, though technological breakthroughs could extend this. For a definitive answer, global oil demand forecasts and future extraction technologies would need closer examination.

What makes western separation so appealing?

 Mark Slapinski, who I follow on X.COM, @mark_slapinski, asks, "Just for fun: Do you think Alberta should become its own country? A - Yes  B - No"

This got me thinking, and talking:

Technically, Alberta is a sovereignty.

It has a democratic government that taxes and builds infrastructure within borders, and it has authority over police, courts, schools, roads, and it has a government with departments covering all aspects of life, including international relations.  

The idea that separation would be difficult is absurd. It would be liberating. The federal government has fallen to corruption. It's really non-essential to begin with. Think about it. British Columbia was a separate colony and thriving, as were all the separate entities, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick Quebec Ontario. Even Manitoba was forming a nation. The notion the federal government is anything but power for power's sake is idiocy perpetrated by satraps and mugwumps in Ottawa.

NEWFOUNDLAND WAS ITS OWN DOMINION (nation) UNTIL THE GOVERNMENT run by NFLD Liberals BANKRUPTED THE DOMINION.  Then they held a referendum to join another country, Canada, and a promise of Family Allowance cheques bought NFLD. Sad, because Newfoundland alone today would be one of the richest countries on earth. Instead, it's Newfoundland, Canada's hind end. That's on Liberals.

I would hardly speak for separation, except the federal government is criminal, or at the very least criminally negligent in running this country.  

 If another generation comes along and ferrets out the criminality which has infested the federal Liberal syndicate, and smashes the phony artifice pretending to politics when all they intend is to rob the taxpayer blind, I would suggest staying in Canada.

But. No. I hope the next generation will crush the criminal syndicate growing like weeds in the Liberal apparatus. The Boomers, sad to say, figured out, the best way to steal is to control the government.

Open revolt against Federal tax intrusions in Canada

🚨MAJOR BREAKING

ALBERTA REFUSES TO ENACT CARNEY'S FEDERAL INDUSTRIAL CARBON PRICING INCREASES

The Republic of Alberta is in open revolt!

Buckle up. pic.twitter.com/P28OLjipVf

— Tablesalt 🇨🇦 (@Tablesalt13) May 12, 2025

Two First Nation historic sites for summer visits, Rocky Mtn House, and Hat Creek

Eight different First Nations as well as Métis are known to have traded at Rocky Mountain House over the 76-year history of the trading posts. This includes the Nehiyawak, Piikani, Siksika, Kainai, Ktunaxa, Tsuu T’ina , Nakoda, and Atsina.
    

The year 2010 marks the sixth year of partnership between Parks Canada’s Rocky Mountain House National Historic Site and the Métis Nation of Alberta. At Bastions & Bones, August 20 – 22, 2010, Blackfoot culture will feature special guest drummers, dancers and ceremonialists from the Piikani Nation.
    

The event commemorates the 200th anniversary of the Piikani blockade on the North Saskatchewan River.  The blockade prevented David Thompson and his North West Company Brigade from continuing west to trade with First Nations on the other side of the Rocky Mountains. This is part of the International David Thompson Bicentennial initiatives.
    

Historic Hat Creek Ranch is in Bonaparte First Nation territory, and Bonaparte is well-represented on-site.  Sandra Gaspard, Bonaparte member, is Manager of Historic and Cultural Operations, and Curator of the significant First Nation presence at the facilities. “We have five different knowledge streams of Shuswap culture to explain,” says Gaspard.
    

On display are cooking and food preservation, lodging, hide and tannery, a replica kikuli that can house 23 people. The historic site features many outstanding structures like an 1860 Roadhouse to go along with the Shuswap Native Interpretive Site, which itself employs eight people, all with First Nation heritage.
    

On the second weekend of August the First Nations host a traditional Pow-Wow on-site at the Historic Hat Creek Ranch, “It’s no-charge admission and we are often feeding the crowd with breakfast or lunch during the Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.,” says Gaspard. 

Meanwhile, until the closing at the end of September, visitors can experience Shuswap ancestry performing drum, flute, and 17 styles of dance. 

Geothermal in Alberta a slow percolating interest

Geothermal Utilities is founded by Joe Lewoniuk in Edmonton, Alberta, who says, "Geothermal is an energy heating solution that's basically free forever once the incremental costs are met." It is a cost-efficient heating and cooling system, "even in a place like Alberta where natural gas is king." Geothermal supplies heat, air conditioning, and hot water, and Lewoniuk  notes that extra costs are generally found in the size of the heat-gathering loop in the ground. "The geothermal industry has more welcoming markets such as in Manitoba where they drill geothermal holes for $3.50 per foot. It's $6.50 a foot in Alberta. You drill 250 feet and the cost is going to be near $2,000."

Despite expense, says Lewoniuk , the energy yield is high and cost-efficient. "It's a far better household investment than say a hot-tub or fancy triple pane glass windows," and he believes Albertans a lagging behind the rest of Canada. Alberta's geothermal reticence is based on lack of knowledge, says Lewoniuk , "The supply chain in building management starts with contractors and are entrenched in gas works in Alberta. It may begin to change now that Natural Resources Canada put earth and geothermal energy on the official list of renewable energy sources in Canada."

 Jeremy Jacob operates Exchangenergy from Pender Street offices in Vancouver and Duncan, B.C., on Vancouver Island. Jacob says, "GeoExchange systems moves the Earth’s energy into a residential or commercial space using ground or water heat exchangers and heat pump technology.  By moving heat instead of producing it through of combustion or electrical heat, we can acheive heating efficiencies of over 500%. GeoExchange systems work with both forced air and radiant floors. Many of our clients prefer radiant floors for their comfortable heat effect. Adding a Heat Recovery Ventilator gives greatly improved indoor air quality.

 Jacob says, "The industry allows systems that use a ground heat exchanger sized for 70% of the building load, but we design systems to run on geothermal 100% of the time without using supplementary heat.  We've found that 100% ground loops suffer none of the 'loop degradation' seen on some partial systems." Time has proven geothermal heat exchange and heat pumps require low maintenance and have the lowest life cycle costs of any other home heating methods.

The atmosphere of living conditions is vastly improved by the use of this technology, "We are control system experts and use careful integration of system elements with an intelligent control system strategy to optimize performance of a GeoExchange heat pump. Solar panels, swimming pools, domestic hot water, air conditioning - depending on the requirements, we can design the best strategy to balance these loads to get the most efficient system."
 

The folks at Integrity Mechanical, in Vancouver, B.C., liken geothermal to a juggling act of amazing proportions, "It's like bringing ten trades together in one smooth and efficient operation," says Scott Miller, the principle, "including several forms of hydronics and circuitry, pumps and heat exchangers." The array is engineered and then installed by excavators or drillers, plumbers and pipe-fitters, heat pump installers, and the process is monitored by regulators. Scott works with solar thermal panels to drench the fluid in solar heat to increase ground heat in the geothermal array.
 

"These solar panels resemble photovoltaic panels but are different because they circulate fluids through panels and can be directed by a series of valves from a mechanical room to feed heat to the geothermal pipes," says Rob Pope, sales manager at Integrity Mechanical. No electrical generation is involved in the thermal solar installation and hot water heat is used in a variety of ways." Geothermal is typically installed on new construction and solar panels are usually 4 feet by 8 feet. "We can supply green energy with huge cost efficiencies to institutions like schools and administrative centres and health clinics and community facilities." 

Polar Refrigeration in Prince George, B.C., installed the NEXT Energy systems with a horizontal array at the McLeod Lake Indian Band, which is a Tse'Khene community that lies up Highway 97N on the way from Prince George to Mackenzie. "They installed it into the administration building a couple of years ago at the main community of the McLeod Lake Band, 150 kilometres north of Prince George," says Dez, of Polar Refrigeration. McLeod Lake Band is an industrious group of over 450 members. The community is presently establishing new Indian Reserve properties in Mackenzie and Bear Lake. As these reserves are developed and housing constructed it is expected more than the present 150 band members will move back to Indian Reserve lands. Innovations like geothermal may be in the offing for new developments.

Parkland Geothermal, Derwin Joelson, President, is a CGC certified NextEnergy dealer in northern and central Saskatchewan. Joelson believes in geothermal is the only way to go in Saskatchewan. The limited availability of natural gas in rural areas combined with costs of propane and oil (or the labour intensive task of providing enough wood as a source of heat in winter months) should only confirm his beliefs.

"Most clients are those who do not have access to natural gas or those who are looking for a more cost efficient heating system in the long run," says Joelson. Compared to conventional heating and cooling systems, geothermal systems have a higher initial cost but lower operating and maintenance costs. "When considering a heating system, we should compare not only initial costs but we must include on-going costs such as fuel, maintenance, and replacement."
 

Geothermal system should be viewed as a long term investment that can mean substantial savings within several years of installation, Joelson says, "The number of incentives and grants available along with the many advantages of a geothermal system and many," including; low maintenance, free air conditioning, comfortable interior environment with cleaner air, hot water, humidity control, and green energy. "This should only convince everyone that geothermal is the answer."
 

Sonic Drilling is a company built on highly functional innovations in drilling that so happen to work optimally on geothermal drilling jobs. With a host of drill and drill head patents Sonic Drilling also manufacturers a line of drills for export to countries all around the world. The company operates in the high-end of the industrial economy by drilling for cost-efficient energy solutions and manufacturers of sonic drills and drill heads.

Ray Roussy patented a super-performing sonic drill that has won awards in geothermal efficiency from the Canadian Geo-Exchange Coalition. Roussy's company Sonic Drilling succeeded in commercializing a sonic drill rig that bores 3-5 times faster (depending on soil conditions), "without using any drilling mud and is able to provide continuous core samples to depths of more than 300 ft. (100 meters)." As a result of these amazing attributes, sonic drilling can be employed in many applications including geo-technical and geothermal projects, environmental investigations, and mineral exploration, with a marked specialty in drilling and sampling for aggregate materials like gravel and for sampling environmental remediation conditions around the province.

 Bill Fitzgerald is the General Manager of Sonic Drilling, and Fitzgerald says, "We sell the drills around the world and employ our own fleet of drill rigs in Canada on a contract basis across the country. We do a lot of environmental drilling for remediation projects and we explore for minerals, and we have a specialization in geothermal holes. We do all kinds of drilling but generally we do the exploratory, environmental, and geothermal holes."

Fitzgerald says, "Our work in drilling in Canada is 90 percent geothermal and 10 percent environmental. It used to be opposite. And we do a lot of work providing core samples for mineral exploration," and they leave a very clean site when the job is done. He explains geothermal drilling comes in two sizes, 5 inch or 6 inch diameter. "These holes provides the width to put in the piping, one inch or one and a quarter inch polyethylene straight down 150 to 200 feet. The loop is made at the bottom and grouting fills the hole," a heat conducive mixture that increases the heat sensitivity in the loop.