Sounds positively giddy you can send 4.84 million barrels of crude oil per day to the United States but take a few bottles of bourbon in return and you're the devil in a red dress.
What a country.
Let's ramble about Oil for a moment, in a big ol' round about way, how much this all means to the U.S. for example.
I wish to deviate for a moment, to begin with, by asking Grok how much oil Alaska ships per day from Valdez, Alaska to Portland and California. This is about a loaded tanker per day in traffic sailing south along the west coast of North America, as you will see.
GROK ANSWERS: Alaska’s crude oil production in 2023 was approximately 422,000 barrels per day, with the majority transported via the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) to Valdez, Alaska, for shipment to the continental United States. Most of this oil is destined for refineries in the Pacific Northwest (Washington) and California (PADD 5), with some also supplying in-state refineries. While exact figures for shipments to the continental U.S. vary, nearly all of Alaska’s production not consumed locally (a small fraction) is shipped to the continental U.S., averaging around 400,000–410,000 barrels per day based on recent trends. No Alaskan crude oil has been exported internationally since 2014.
Next asking Grok what route the oil takes. . .
Prince William Sound: Tankers depart from Port Valdez, navigating the deep, ice-free waters of Valdez Arm within Prince William Sound, a large embayment of the Gulf of Alaska. The entrance to the sound has a minimum channel width of about 3,000 feet.
Gulf of Alaska: After exiting Prince William Sound, tankers travel south through the Gulf of Alaska, a region of the Pacific Ocean along Alaska’s southern coast.
Pacific Ocean (West Coast Route): Tankers proceed south along the U.S. West Coast, primarily following coastal shipping lanes to reach refineries in the Pacific Northwest and California. The route avoids major international waters for most shipments, as the oil is destined for U.S. ports.
Domestic Dominance: About 85–90% of U.S. oil consumption is met by domestic production, primarily from shale plays like the Permian Basin, Eagle Ford, and Bakken formations.
Imports Supplement: The remaining ~10–15% comes from imports, with Canada being the largest supplier (e.g., 4.84 million barrels per day of crude in 2023). Imports are often used for specific crude types suited to U.S. refineries.
Alaska’s Contribution: Alaska’s production (~422,000 barrels per day) is a small fraction of domestic supply, mostly shipped to West Coast refineries, as discussed earlier.
19 million barrels per day in U.S., out of the world's 100 million barrels per day.
That's a whopping amount of oil.
10–15% comes from imports, with Canada being the largest supplier (e.g., 4.84 million barrels per day) of what makes the U.S. function, those are essential percents.
And it's Alberta, with some from Nfld Labrador.
GROK Explains: In 2023, Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) contributed approximately 1.9% of Canada’s total crude oil exports to the United States, according to the Canada Energy Regulator (CER). Canada exported about 4 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil to the U.S. that year, with NL’s share equating to roughly 76,000 barrels per day (4 million × 0.019).
This volume comes from NL’s offshore oil fields (e.g., Hibernia, Terra Nova, White Rose, and Hebron), which produced about 0.2 million barrels per day (4% of Canada’s total oil production) in 2023. While most Canadian oil exports to the U.S. originate from Alberta (87.4%) and Saskatchewan (8.9%), NL’s light, sweet crude is primarily shipped by tankers from the Whiffen Head terminal in Placentia Bay to U.S. East Coast refineries (PADD 1). Notably, 40–60% of NL’s oil production in 2023–2024 was exported to non-U.S. markets (e.g., Western Europe, China, Croatia), reducing the U.S. share compared to historical trends.
So what is it you expect Premier Smith to do? Cut off oil to the U.S.? That sounds like an act of unaliving oneself.
With everything at stake here, we better throw in the whisky.
Price of Oil
Benchmark Price: Most Canadian crude exported to the U.S. is heavy oil, such as Western Canadian Select (WCS), which is typically priced at a discount compared to West Texas Intermediate (WTI). In 2023, WCS prices averaged around $60 per barrel, while WTI averaged about $77 per barrel (based on EIA and industry data).📷📷
For a conservative ballpark estimate, we’ll use $60 per barrel for WCS, as it reflects the heavier crude dominant in Canadian exports (e.g., from Alberta’s oil sands).
3. Daily Value
Calculation: 4.84 million barrels/day × $60 per barrel = $290.4 million per day.
Range Estimate: If we consider a price range of $55–$65 per barrel to account for WCS price fluctuations in 2023:
Low end: 4.84 million × $55 = $266.2 million per day.
High end: 4.84 million × $65 = $314.6 million per day.
4. Annual Value
Annual Estimate: To provide context, 4.84 million barrels/day × 365 days × $60 per barrel = $105.92 billion per year.
This aligns with estimates from the Canada Energy Regulator, which valued 2023 Canadian crude oil exports to the U.S. (3.8 million b/d in their data) at $130 billion, suggesting our per-barrel price is reasonable but conservative, as actual volumes and prices may vary slightly.📷
5. Newfoundland and Labrador’s Contribution
From your earlier question, Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) contributed about 76,000 barrels per day (1.9% of Canada’s 4 million b/d exports to the U.S.). Using the same $60 per barrel:
Daily Value from NL: 76,000 barrels/day × $60 = $4.56 million per day.
Annual Value from NL: 76,000 × 365 × $60 = $1.66 billion per year.
1. Economic Scale
U.S. Economy: The U.S. GDP in 2023 was approximately $25.5 trillion (World Bank data). Canada’s oil exports to the U.S. ($106 billion annually) represent about 0.42% of U.S. GDP. While this is a small fraction of the total economy, it’s a significant figure in absolute terms, equivalent to the GDP of a mid-sized country like Vietnam ($104 billion in 2023).
Canadian Economy: Canada’s GDP in 2023 was about $2.14 trillion USD (World Bank). The $106 billion in oil exports to the U.S. accounts for roughly 5% of Canada’s GDP, a substantial contribution to its economy, particularly for provinces like Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador.
Oil Industry: The global oil market in 2023 was valued at roughly $2.5–3 trillion annually (100.2 million barrels/day global consumption × $70–80 average price per barrel). Canada’s U.S. exports ($106 billion) represent about 3.5–4.2% of the global oil market value, underscoring their importance in global energy trade.
2. Energy Supply Context
U.S. Oil Consumption: The U.S. consumed about 19.0 million barrels per day of oil in 2023 (EIA data). Canada’s 4.84 million barrels per day supply ~25.5% of U.S. oil consumption, making it the largest single source of U.S. oil imports (followed by Mexico and Saudi Arabia). This is a critical component of U.S. energy security, especially since domestic production (~12.9 million barrels/day) covers ~68% of consumption, leaving imports to fill the gap.
Comparison to Other Imports: Canada’s 4.84 million barrels/day dwarfs other U.S. oil import sources (e.g., Mexico: 0.6 million barrels/day; Saudi Arabia: ~0.4 million barrels/day). It’s also significantly larger than Alaska’s domestic shipments to the continental U.S. (400,000 barrels/day), which you asked about earlier.
Newfoundland and Labrador (NL): NL’s contribution of 76,000 barrels per day ($4.6 million/day or $1.66 billion/year) is smaller but still significant, representing ~1.9% of Canada’s U.S. exports. For NL, this is a major economic driver, as oil accounts for ~25% of the province’s GDP.
So we are nothing to them and they are everything to us. That's a spicy meatball.
We are nothing. Literally nothing to them. We are not equivalent to the sweat on their ass. That's what we have to show for it. Frankly it's a fucking miracle a guy like Mark Carney would even bother to run Canada.
