Trump delivers speech to Congress, watch if you love stone-faced Democrats

President Donald Trump’s full remarks to a joint session of Congress

pic.twitter.com/UmGhPrnclS

— America (@america) March 5, 2025

So, we decided the future is solar

 It's solar or bust for the human race.

It's true, when the infrastructure falls into place, and you're at a latitude advantageous for production of solar electricity.

Equally, the invention of batteries, and the evolution of solar energy gathering technology, it may only take minutes a day in cloudy conditions to create the kind of power we use daily in our industrial and domestic lives.

You could probably expect a paint on an automobile to turn both sun and warmth into electrical energy to power the car and store in batteries. Batteries will evolve into something beyond recognition. The whole world could be done over, and will be. Because you're right. The power of the sun makes oil look like a fart in the wind.

It's important to recognize limits on petroleum energy, because it may indeed be a supply that could go on forever, who knows? 

The problem is basic. It takes a large concentration of energy simply to distribute petroleum, and if the demand for this form of energy is increasing, the infrastructure also needs to expand, which means the tankers need to be bigger, and sail more frequently, and the storage facilities need to be larger, and the pipelines need to expand, and the gas lines to the houses, and the gas stations for the increasing number of cars, and trucks, and trains.  

In short, it becomes ungainly to deliver this form of energy, to be honest, plus, you build it, then, run out of oil. What a mess that's going to be. And you haven't replaced it. Which was supposed to happen in about 1975.

The actual projections for running out of oil stands at 50 years from now. That's also a blink and you're there.

Check out our latest pod with @JessePeltan, which is just 3 hrs straight of him dropping bangers like the one below pic.twitter.com/y6BbDykKXe

— DER Task Force (@DER_Task_Force) May 6, 2025

The skinny on Oil Sands in Alberta, according to Grok

15 web pages produced by Grok in less time than it takes to make a cuppa tea.

I said, to Grok, "The oils sands of Alberta are projected to contain reserves of oil enough to serve demand for 200 years. Does this sound accurate?"

The claim that Alberta’s oil sands contain reserves sufficient to meet demand for 200 years requires careful scrutiny, as it depends on multiple variables including reserve estimates, extraction methods, global oil demand, and economic viability. Let’s break it down based on available data and critical analysis.

Reserve Estimates

Alberta’s oil sands are among the largest oil reserves globally, with proven reserves estimated at approximately 158.9 to 167 billion barrels of recoverable bitumen, according to sources like the Alberta government, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), and McDaniel & Associates. Total bitumen-in-place is much higher, estimated at 1.7 to 2.5 trillion barrels, but only about 10% is economically recoverable with current technology.

Current Production and Demand Context

In 2024, Alberta’s oil sands produced about 3.4 to 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd), accounting for roughly 75% of Canada’s total oil production. Global oil demand in 2024 was approximately 100 million bpd, with projections suggesting demand may peak around 2030–2035 before declining due to energy transitions (e.g., electrification, renewable energy).

To evaluate the 200-year claim, let’s assume Alberta’s oil sands were to supply a significant portion of global demand:

At 3.4 million bpd, annual production is roughly 1.24 billion barrels per year (3.4 million × 365 days).

Dividing the proven reserves (167 billion barrels) by this production rate yields approximately 135 years of supply if Alberta’s oil sands were the sole source at current production levels (167 billion ÷ 1.24 billion ≈ 135).

However, global demand far exceeds Alberta’s production capacity, as the oil sands contribute only about 3–4% of global supply. If we consider Alberta supplying a fraction of global demand (e.g., 3.4 million bpd out of 100 million bpd), the reserves would last much longer, but the 200-year claim assumes sustained demand and no significant technological or economic disruptions.

Factors Affecting the 200-Year Claim

Demand Projections: The claim assumes constant or slowly declining oil demand over 200 years. However, the Canadian Energy Regulator predicts a potential 75% drop in Canadian crude production by 2050 in a global net-zero scenario due to reduced fossil fuel demand. Countries like China, the UK, and France are planning to phase out internal combustion engines by 2040, which could significantly reduce oil demand.

Economic Viability: Oil sands extraction is energy-intensive and costly, requiring high oil prices (e.g., $60–$70 per barrel or more) to remain profitable. Fluctuating oil prices, competition from cheaper sources (e.g., U.S. shale), and increasing carbon taxes could limit long-term production.

Technological Advances: Innovations like steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) have increased recoverable reserves, but only 10% of bitumen-in-place is currently economical. Future technologies could increase this percentage, potentially extending the reserve lifespan, but this is speculative.

Environmental and Policy Constraints: Oil sands are criticized for high carbon emissions, water usage, and land disturbance. Stricter regulations, carbon pricing, or global climate commitments (e.g., Paris Agreement) could curtail production. For instance, emissions from oil sands were 84 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2019, about 15% of Canada’s total emissions.

Global Competition: Other oil-producing regions (e.g., Venezuela, Saudi Arabia) have larger or cheaper reserves. Venezuela’s heavy oil deposits are estimated at 1,200 billion barrels in-place, though recovery rates are lower. U.S. shale oil, with lower breakeven costs, could outcompete oil sands in certain markets.

Critical Analysis of the 200-Year Claim

The 200-year estimate likely originates from optimistic projections, such as those cited in a 2017 CBC article quoting an oil sands executive claiming operations could last “100 or 200 years.” Similarly, a 2009 NASA Earth Observatory report suggested the oil sands could produce 2.5 million bpd for 186 years, based on 174.5 billion barrels of reserves. However, these projections often assume:

Constant production rates without accounting for demand declines.

No significant policy shifts toward decarbonization. Continued economic viability despite high extraction costs and environmental liabilities, estimated at $60–$260 billion for cleanup.

Skeptically, the 200-year figure seems overly optimistic. A more realistic estimate, based on current reserves and production rates, suggests 100–150 years if Alberta’s oil sands were a primary global supplier, but this ignores declining demand and external pressures. Posts on X, such as one claiming Alberta has “1 trillion barrels” (likely referring to bitumen-in-place, not recoverable reserves), exaggerate the usable supply.

Conclusion

The claim that Alberta’s oil sands can meet demand for 200 years is not entirely accurate under realistic scenarios. At current production rates and proven reserves, the supply could theoretically last 100–150 years if used exclusively, but global demand trends, economic challenges, and environmental policies make this unlikely. A more conservative estimate suggests 20–50 years of significant production before demand declines or costs render large-scale extraction uneconomical, though technological breakthroughs could extend this. For a definitive answer, global oil demand forecasts and future extraction technologies would need closer examination.