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Operations up but planting numbers down; PLUS Introducing The Cache, WFCA Bulletin Board

Wait for the sign: an auspicious portent last year over a planting camp near Burns Lake. 2025, so far, is going well, according to field reports. Photo LL. WFCA.CA

According to information from provincial seedling storage operators, about a third of their tree cartons have been delivered to the field since Interior planting began in April. 

If things continue to go smoothly, these refrigerated warehouses will be mostly empty by the summer solstice. Summer hot-lift planting usually begins again around July. 

This year’s provincial planting volume is down about 60-million from the 2020 +300-million estimated to be the sector’s full capacity. 

That reduction in work for the overall seasonal labour force of approximately 7000 has been hardest on new recruits with only half of the usual thousand or so rookies hired, according to anecdotal reports. 

New First Aid regulations seem to be working with both contractors and WorkSafeBC figuring out what they mean in practice. Alberta’s planting at ~100-million has not been affected like the BC program allowing some BC planters to continue to cross the Cordillera for the summer planting east of here. 

No contractors are shorthanded with some reporting more returnees due to stunted prospects in other parts of the work economy. Drought remains a concern due to the lower snowpack levels with accounts of the last of the snow on blocks, in some places, seeming to sublimate.

 Anticipated wetter weather fronts this month may offer some relief. But continental long-range forecasts say things will heat up across the country to above normal later this spring and summer. As we go to press, crews are waiting out wildfire activity in Manitoba related to a recent heat wave.

The Cache  traffics in resource materials, job postings, and lately expert advice on First Aid, employment standards, and career and occupational paths.

Following the launch last March of an online Job board at The Cache,  the industry website has continued to grow with a new “Ask an Expert” section to answer questions posed by workers. The Job Board provides a method of posting work opportunities outside the channels of conventional social media. 

Postings have thus far included openings for tree planters, nursery workers, camp and kitchen workers, and firefighters. “Ask an Expert” articles have addressed topics related to new first aid guidelines, personal protective equipment, and employment standards, with new topics covered weekly.

The Cache is not intended to replace existing social media on Meta (Facebook) or Reddit, but instead it is designed to work in parallel and provide a forum for employers and employees that choose to avoid other media. Moving forward, The Cache will also provide a hub for online training opportunities, career development mapping, and other resources for people seeking to learn about silviculture work or advance their careers in the field.

Posting jobs on The Cache is free, and job ads and links to The Cache are shared across other social media platforms to broaden the audience.  With the primary recruitment pool for silviculture comprising young people between the ages of 18 and 25, 

The Cache fills an important space in the industry social media strategy. The Cache will also provide an important means of centralizing and increasing access to training as the industry adapts its workforce and skill sets to deal with changing industry needs, new hazards associated with climate change, and shifts in economic conditions and workforce composition.

Article reprinted from WFCA Round-Up May 2025 

http://www.mccollmagazine.com 

What Elon said on his way out the door? This is very bad news about Jeffrey Epstein, first he's killed, then he's legless

pic.twitter.com/u6ZFHSWMri

— Vote Canada (@VoteCanadaCom) June 5, 2025

Salmon Growers on B.C. side of Canada want to continue

The Great Chinese-Canada Alliance nobody asked for

#WATCH: Melanie Joly says Canada and China are the only countries to impose retaliatory tariffs against the US.

According to her, being like China is good and being like the US is bad.

Is Melanie Joly retarded? pic.twitter.com/gFAmNyg947

— govt.exe is corrupt (@govt_corrupt) June 2, 2025

In answer to my friend, @govtcorrupt.

Well, the question is, how does China feel about Israel? At best, China feels a kind of practiced ambivalence, and a load of skepticism. 

 For this reason, I bet there's a Canada-China alliance against Israel currently underway.

Not only has the Canadian political elite pissed away Canada's standing in trade, energy, military, and alliances. 

No.

Canada's political elite has aligned the nation with communists and terrorists, creating arms embargoes against Israel, totally annihilating the India relationship, and kissing China's ass like she was Harvey Weinstein and Miramax offering the role of a lifetime. I don't know why. Canadians don't align with terrorists. 

Or communist fentanyl exporters. WTF is going on? Canada's elite is nose deep in bad stuff. Citizen X @MackMcColl222 

You know, they're not really elite. They're rich. They're bottom feeders. They get big, rich, up sucking everything off the floor. It's everything. Like, a carbon tax is a sucking everything off the floor. 

First, they hang you upside down. Then they suck everything off the floor.

Toronto Hamas demonstrators arrested, police say no to terrorist sympathizers

Mass arrests of proHamas demonstrators -is this the right action ?
Do you support this !

pic.twitter.com/6VcOVvJm7m

— Concerned Canadian (@Concern70732755) June 1, 2025

Paris is burning with Islamic rage 

Paris is gone.pic.twitter.com/UTgSEkKOpT

— Vivid.🇮🇱 (@VividProwess) May 31, 2025

Trump delivers speech to Congress, watch if you love stone-faced Democrats

President Donald Trump’s full remarks to a joint session of Congress

pic.twitter.com/UmGhPrnclS

— America (@america) March 5, 2025

So, we decided the future is solar

 It's solar or bust for the human race.

It's true, when the infrastructure falls into place, and you're at a latitude advantageous for production of solar electricity.

Equally, the invention of batteries, and the evolution of solar energy gathering technology, it may only take minutes a day in cloudy conditions to create the kind of power we use daily in our industrial and domestic lives.

You could probably expect a paint on an automobile to turn both sun and warmth into electrical energy to power the car and store in batteries. Batteries will evolve into something beyond recognition. The whole world could be done over, and will be. Because you're right. The power of the sun makes oil look like a fart in the wind.

It's important to recognize limits on petroleum energy, because it may indeed be a supply that could go on forever, who knows? 

The problem is basic. It takes a large concentration of energy simply to distribute petroleum, and if the demand for this form of energy is increasing, the infrastructure also needs to expand, which means the tankers need to be bigger, and sail more frequently, and the storage facilities need to be larger, and the pipelines need to expand, and the gas lines to the houses, and the gas stations for the increasing number of cars, and trucks, and trains.  

In short, it becomes ungainly to deliver this form of energy, to be honest, plus, you build it, then, run out of oil. What a mess that's going to be. And you haven't replaced it. Which was supposed to happen in about 1975.

The actual projections for running out of oil stands at 50 years from now. That's also a blink and you're there.

Check out our latest pod with @JessePeltan, which is just 3 hrs straight of him dropping bangers like the one below pic.twitter.com/y6BbDykKXe

— DER Task Force (@DER_Task_Force) May 6, 2025

The skinny on Oil Sands in Alberta, according to Grok

15 web pages produced by Grok in less time than it takes to make a cuppa tea.

I said, to Grok, "The oils sands of Alberta are projected to contain reserves of oil enough to serve demand for 200 years. Does this sound accurate?"

The claim that Alberta’s oil sands contain reserves sufficient to meet demand for 200 years requires careful scrutiny, as it depends on multiple variables including reserve estimates, extraction methods, global oil demand, and economic viability. Let’s break it down based on available data and critical analysis.

Reserve Estimates

Alberta’s oil sands are among the largest oil reserves globally, with proven reserves estimated at approximately 158.9 to 167 billion barrels of recoverable bitumen, according to sources like the Alberta government, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), and McDaniel & Associates. Total bitumen-in-place is much higher, estimated at 1.7 to 2.5 trillion barrels, but only about 10% is economically recoverable with current technology.

Current Production and Demand Context

In 2024, Alberta’s oil sands produced about 3.4 to 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd), accounting for roughly 75% of Canada’s total oil production. Global oil demand in 2024 was approximately 100 million bpd, with projections suggesting demand may peak around 2030–2035 before declining due to energy transitions (e.g., electrification, renewable energy).

To evaluate the 200-year claim, let’s assume Alberta’s oil sands were to supply a significant portion of global demand:

At 3.4 million bpd, annual production is roughly 1.24 billion barrels per year (3.4 million × 365 days).

Dividing the proven reserves (167 billion barrels) by this production rate yields approximately 135 years of supply if Alberta’s oil sands were the sole source at current production levels (167 billion ÷ 1.24 billion ≈ 135).

However, global demand far exceeds Alberta’s production capacity, as the oil sands contribute only about 3–4% of global supply. If we consider Alberta supplying a fraction of global demand (e.g., 3.4 million bpd out of 100 million bpd), the reserves would last much longer, but the 200-year claim assumes sustained demand and no significant technological or economic disruptions.

Factors Affecting the 200-Year Claim

Demand Projections: The claim assumes constant or slowly declining oil demand over 200 years. However, the Canadian Energy Regulator predicts a potential 75% drop in Canadian crude production by 2050 in a global net-zero scenario due to reduced fossil fuel demand. Countries like China, the UK, and France are planning to phase out internal combustion engines by 2040, which could significantly reduce oil demand.

Economic Viability: Oil sands extraction is energy-intensive and costly, requiring high oil prices (e.g., $60–$70 per barrel or more) to remain profitable. Fluctuating oil prices, competition from cheaper sources (e.g., U.S. shale), and increasing carbon taxes could limit long-term production.

Technological Advances: Innovations like steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) have increased recoverable reserves, but only 10% of bitumen-in-place is currently economical. Future technologies could increase this percentage, potentially extending the reserve lifespan, but this is speculative.

Environmental and Policy Constraints: Oil sands are criticized for high carbon emissions, water usage, and land disturbance. Stricter regulations, carbon pricing, or global climate commitments (e.g., Paris Agreement) could curtail production. For instance, emissions from oil sands were 84 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2019, about 15% of Canada’s total emissions.

Global Competition: Other oil-producing regions (e.g., Venezuela, Saudi Arabia) have larger or cheaper reserves. Venezuela’s heavy oil deposits are estimated at 1,200 billion barrels in-place, though recovery rates are lower. U.S. shale oil, with lower breakeven costs, could outcompete oil sands in certain markets.

Critical Analysis of the 200-Year Claim

The 200-year estimate likely originates from optimistic projections, such as those cited in a 2017 CBC article quoting an oil sands executive claiming operations could last “100 or 200 years.” Similarly, a 2009 NASA Earth Observatory report suggested the oil sands could produce 2.5 million bpd for 186 years, based on 174.5 billion barrels of reserves. However, these projections often assume:

Constant production rates without accounting for demand declines.

No significant policy shifts toward decarbonization. Continued economic viability despite high extraction costs and environmental liabilities, estimated at $60–$260 billion for cleanup.

Skeptically, the 200-year figure seems overly optimistic. A more realistic estimate, based on current reserves and production rates, suggests 100–150 years if Alberta’s oil sands were a primary global supplier, but this ignores declining demand and external pressures. Posts on X, such as one claiming Alberta has “1 trillion barrels” (likely referring to bitumen-in-place, not recoverable reserves), exaggerate the usable supply.

Conclusion

The claim that Alberta’s oil sands can meet demand for 200 years is not entirely accurate under realistic scenarios. At current production rates and proven reserves, the supply could theoretically last 100–150 years if used exclusively, but global demand trends, economic challenges, and environmental policies make this unlikely. A more conservative estimate suggests 20–50 years of significant production before demand declines or costs render large-scale extraction uneconomical, though technological breakthroughs could extend this. For a definitive answer, global oil demand forecasts and future extraction technologies would need closer examination.

Flatlined aquaculture production and a small fragment of west coast potential

 May 20, 2025

To: Federal and Provincial Ministers of Agriculture and Fisheries

Dear Ministers:

On behalf of Canada’s seafood farming community, we thank you for your work and your commitment to your provinces and to Canada. As leaders in the aquaculture sector, we commit ourselves to working with you to create lasting value and flourishing communities through our sector across Canada.

The future of seafood development in Canada and across the world is dependent on human ingenuity to find new ways to responsibly create value from our oceans, to innovate to produce more, secure and affordable seafood to support Canadians and the world.

We have a special responsibility in Canada with some of the greatest biophysical capacity on the planet. With highly skilled people, and many coastal communities waiting for new opportunities and renewal, precision farming of our waters is a unique blessing for Canada.

It is time to move beyond Canada’s mediocre performance. For over twenty years Canada has Flatlined in aquaculture production growth while using only a small fragment of our potential. We need a new vision and government leadership to support us to the next level of production and excellence in aquaculture production. You are the leaders that can and must be bold to achieve this.

We ask you to undertake a pathway that allows for a new approach to aquaculture development in Canada. We propose the following areas of action to you as the foundations for a new springtime in seafood development and coastal community revitalization.

1) Science Must Be the Foundation

Science must be re-established as foundational for aquaculture development. A re-commitment to objective scientific advice as the foundation for policy decisions is necessary. All human activity has some degree of environmental risk, and there is no such thing as zero risk. Putting off economic development risks the health of people, families and communities. Governments must be clear on acceptable levels of environmental risk to make predictable and reasonable decisions for project development.

2) The BC “Open Net Pen” Ban Must Be Removed

The 2024 federal decision to ban salmon farming net pens by 2029 is scientifically, economically and technologically irresponsible. It has cast an investment chill on all of Canada and we are seeing its negative influence around the world. As salmon farming investment decisions in BC for 2029 are approaching quickly, the ban must be removed urgently in favour of a clear performance-based pathway that establishes stabilization, future growth and attracts investment in innovation and new technologies.

3) Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) Must be the Federal Aquaculture Champion

DFO is a regulator and habitat protector. It is not equipped to support a modern, growth-oriented farming sector. It is time for a change. AAFC must be named the lead federal department for sector development, while DFO and CFIA continue to be regulators of the sector. Aquaculture must finally be included in federal legislation as a farming activity consistent with international definitions.

4) Modernize Shellfish Sector Management and Risk Supports

The shellfish aquaculture sector holds significant economic, environmental, and food security potential across Canada. However, its growth is constrained by outdated federal oversight, particularly under the Canadian Shellfish Sanitation Program (CSSP), and by the sector’s exclusion from essential risk management tools available to other forms of food production. A modernized approach is needed — one that ensures effective, coordinated delivery of public health protections while also enabling access to government-industry programs that provide stability and resilience for producers.

To move this forward, we request federal support for a pilot crop insurance program for shellfish aquaculture in Prince Edward Island, with the goal of informing a national approach to business risk management program access for shellfish farmers in all producing provinces.

We ask you: provide a positive signal that aquaculture is an important part of Canada’s future and together begin building a united vision for this future. 

For our part, we will increase our efforts to build public trust and constantly improve our practices. We can together build a sector that leads the world with job creation, skilled workers, Indigenous economic and reconciliation opportunities, low-carbon, healthy and affordable home-grown protein production, and renewed coastal communities

This is an exciting time and challenge. The time is now for positive and lasting change to benefit your provinces and all of Canada.

Sincerely,