SOURCE IS GROK (https://x.com/i/grok/share/HSkMUxM7KYyIduHJn2qltJaBk )
Recovery to Present-Day Numbers:
Yes, global oil consumption has recovered from the 2020 COVID-19 downturn, when it fell to about 91 million barrels per day (b/d). By 2023, it reached approximately 100.2 million b/d, and 2024 estimates suggest around 103 million b/d, surpassing pre-pandemic levels due to eased restrictions, economic rebound, and sustained demand in sectors like transportation and industry.
10-Year Projections (2025–2035):
Projections for daily global oil consumption over the next decade vary depending on economic growth, energy transition policies, and technological adoption (e.g., electric vehicles, EVs). Below are key insights based on available data:
- Near-Term (2025–2028):
- 2025: Forecasts estimate consumption at around 103.9–104.3 million b/d, with growth of about 0.9–1.45 million b/d from 2024, driven by non-OECD Asia (e.g., China and India).
- 2026: Growth is expected to continue, with estimates ranging from 104.7–105.3 million b/d, reflecting a modest increase of 1.0–1.43 million b/d.
- 2027–2028: The International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests growth slowing, with demand possibly reaching 105–106 million b/d by 2028, but some sources predict a peak around this time due to EV adoption and efficiency gains.
- Mid-to-Long-Term (2029–2035):
- Optimistic Scenarios (e.g., OPEC, ExxonMobil): OPEC projects demand could rise to 108–112 million b/d by 2030, assuming strong economic growth in emerging markets and slower EV penetration. They see demand plateauing post-2035 above 100 million b/d through 2050, driven by transportation and petrochemicals.
- Moderate Scenarios (e.g., EIA, Enverus): The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Enverus estimate demand at around 108 million b/d by 2030, with a potential peak between 2030 and 2035. Post-peak, demand may stabilize or decline slightly due to energy transitions.
- Pessimistic Scenarios (e.g., IEA, McKinsey): The IEA and McKinsey project a peak closer to 2025–2030 at 104–106 million b/d, followed by a decline to 97–100 million b/d by 2035. This assumes aggressive decarbonization, widespread EV adoption, and reduced oil use in transport.
- Key Drivers and Uncertainties:
- Growth Factors: Demand in non-OECD countries (e.g., India, China) for transportation and petrochemicals will likely sustain consumption. Air travel and plastics production are harder to decarbonize, supporting oil use.
- Decline Factors: Rapid EV adoption, energy efficiency, and renewable energy policies could curb demand, especially in OECD nations. China’s shift to LNG trucks and EVs is already slowing oil growth.
- Geopolitical and Economic Risks: Trade policies (e.g., U.S. tariffs), sanctions, and OPEC+ production decisions add uncertainty. A surplus is projected by 2025 if supply outpaces demand, potentially lowering prices and affecting consumption.
Critical Perspective:
Establishment forecasts often diverge based on assumptions about policy and technology. OPEC’s higher projections align with producer interests, while IEA’s lower estimates reflect net-zero ambitions, which may overestimate transition speed given current infrastructure and economic realities. Actual outcomes will hinge on unpredictable factors like global GDP, geopolitical stability, and consumer behavior. My synthesis leans toward a peak near 2030 at 105–108 million b/d, followed by a plateau or gradual decline, as emerging market demand offsets OECD reductions.
If you’d like, I can dig deeper into a specific region or scenario!
ME: No Thanks, Grok.
